Whether you agree or disagree with Disney’s laser-focus on IP additions at its parks – even to the detriment of Imagineering originals and long-term strategy – you have to admit that on paper, the last ten years of Disney Parks have been transformational.

But even if 2013 – 2023 were filled with big, audacious, expensive new rides, that list of new things doesn’t really match with the strategy for Disney Parks going forward… After all, it looks like the story of Disney Parks in 2023 and beyond will diverge heavily from the growth we’ve seen up until now…

2. Disney banked big on Parks revenue post-COVID

If you traveled back in a time machine and told your 2013-self that within ten years, FastPass, Magical Express, free MagicBands, and more would all be a thing of the past, what would you past self have thought?

But the COVID-19 pandemic gave Disney an opportunity it couldn’t pass up: to finally end many lingering, pesky perks instituted in the decades prior. Whereas Disney was once willing to invest in “loss leaders” meant to lure guests into the “Disney Bubble” and keep them there, changing times left many of those sunk-cost perks as corporate nuisances that a COVID reset offered a much-needed excuse to cull.

In an era when Ubers make the “Disney Bubble” permeable even to those without a rental car, why should Disney underwrite Magical Express? And if people are going to rent a car, why not squeeze another $15 a night in parking fees from them? In the age of the smartphone, why offer free MagicBands to resort guests? And of course, with every other theme park on Earth turning line-skipping into an all-profit revenue-generator, why offer free FastPass just to maintain silly, old-fashioned “good will”?

Indeed, Disney seems set on sending post-pandemic guests home with fewer free mementos and far more stories of raised prices, slashed perks, and new upcharges. It’s a strange strategy, but one that aligns with Chapek’s quiet-part-out-loud assertion that Disney would be very pleased to have fewer guests, as long as they’re of the more “spendy” variety….

Of course, declining attendance estimates and alleged serious guest satisfaction issues may leave Disney’s C-suite wishing they’d been careful what they asked for… And indeed, though Disney Parks prices have always risen (and always will), Disney’s restriction of annual passes, its elimination of many guest perks, and the public’s seemingly-waning allegiance to its parks and brand mean that what we saw in the last decade in terms of investment and direction isn’t necessarily what we should expect going forward…

3. Disney as a whole seems poised for a retraction

Compounding with all of that, Disney looks to be entering a creative dry spell. Though Iger insists that the parks are a massive growth industry for the company, literally no new rides were announced at the 2022 D23 Expo, meaning that once Tiana’s Bayou Adventure opens in 2024, Disney’s list of announced projects-in-development goes blank. Especially given Imagineering’s laboriously long development timelines (typically 4 or 5 years from groundbreaking to opening), that means we should expect at least several years where shows, IP-based wraps, and popcorn buckets make up Disney’s promotional plan.

That may not be surprising given that Imagineering has reportedly seen its numbers fall from nearly 2,000 to just a few hundred – a consequence of Chapek’s (now-cancelled) mandated relocation from California to Florida (which was seen by many as an attempt to downsize the costly team of designers) apparently worked, leaving Imagineering with a skeleton crew. Allegedly, hundreds of Imagineers abandoned Disney (many of whom were rightly gobbled up by competing design firms… oops!). So is it any surprise that there doesn’t seem to be much on the schedule at the moment?

Sure, fans hope that Iger’s recent return will see the once-and-future entertainment king bestow another round of multi-billion dollar funding to sweep through Disney’s theme parks the way he did during his first few years in the 2000s… and Iger talks like it’s possible.

But this is a different Disney; one that paid $72 billion for 20th Century Fox (more than ABC, ESPN, The Muppets, Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm combined, and $20 billion more than its initial offer thanks to a bidding war with Comcast). To make matters worse, Disney found itself strangled by that substantial debt load just as COVID changed the entertainment landscape forever… and at least so far, doesn’t seem to really know what it can glean from its $72 billion acquisition. And if only debt were Disney’s only hurdle…

Whether Disney asked for it or not, it's always been a company whose inner workings, important figures, acquisitions, and strategic moves are present in the public discourse. That was typically for the better. 

However, the political right and its “culture wars” have taken aim at the company, with high profile political clashes between Disney leadership and Florida governor Ron DeSantis. In his short tenure, Chapek first earned the ire of Disney's Cast Members by refusing to take a stance on Florida's "Don't Say Gay" bill, then promptly made an energy of the political right by changing course. Those kinds of embarrassing public relations snafus with Chapek at the helm seemed likely to end with Iger’s return, but the steady leader’s tone-deaf responses to the 2023 writers’ and actors’ guild strikes have made Disney an opponent of both the right and the left all over again.

That’s a whole lot for Disney to shoulder, especially given the company’s short-sighted choice to put all their chips on streaming – a business that precisely no one has figured out how to make profitable. The result is that Disney has the cost structures of an entertainment company, but is measured on Wall Street like a tech company, chasing impossibly exponential growth in subscribers while being held to the continuous cutting of costs.

Even Iger’s triumphant Golden Geese – Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars – may have paid off their purchase prices in spades, but are all showing cracks in their once-infinite potentialities, leaving Wall Street worried… It's a precarious position for a company that’s gone all-in on select, core brands, often at the expense of developing new characters. So it’s no wonder that Disney Parks are seen as a sturdy, stable, and needed revenue generator whose add-on, upcharge programs can help pad the company’s bottom line… even at the expense of decades of good will.

Disney, ten years later

In other words, both The Walt Disney Company and Walt Disney World today look very, very different than they did a decade ago. And as Iger extends his contract for another two years to weather the choppy seas ahead, much is unknown about how the parks will play in to Disney’s strategy… But we do know much about its number one competitor, and what that entertainment resort up the road has planned…

Ten years after we first saw the momentum in Orlando shifting, do you think that at last, “Universal Rises” to meet Disney World head-on? Read on as we explore the changes at Universal since 2013, including a major swap of ownership that changed everything…