It has now been more than six weeks since Disneyland Resort and Walt Disney World closed their gates indefinitely due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. And though these domestic resorts were originally shut down only through the end of March, but now they are closed until further notice.

And while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and California Governor Gavin Newsom have been meeting with Disney executives to formulate a plan for reopening, there have been no official updates about the future of theme park operations at the biggest theme park operator in the world. 

Though many are hoping that Disney parks will open in some capacity for the summer (Disney reportedly has a "soft target" of June 1 for a reopening) this opening in just over a month is looking like less and less of a possibility. 

Analyst predicts 2021 opening for Disney Parks in the US

Last week WESH reported financial analyst John Hodulik at UBS downgraded shares of Disney, saying that the poor outlook for the company this year is in part to Disney likely being unable to open its US theme parks at all in the 2020 calendar year. And even when the parks do open, they cap attendance at 50% capacity for the first six months and then 75% capacity for the remaining six months of 2021.

Though this may sound like an extreme prediction, with the growing uncertainty around the COVID-19 virus, and many predicting that a "second wave" could be right around the corner, it would make sense for Disney to play it safe with a reopening. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has said that it may take a year to 18 months for a COVID-19 vaccine to be available, and while there is no treatment or vaccine available, it makes sense for theme parks, where social distancing will be difficult, to remain closed at this time. 

Shanghai Disneyland testing reopening

And while Shanghai Disneyland is currently testing its own social distancing measures in an effort to reopen its theme parks sooner rather than later, such measures might be more difficult to implement in the United States. Not only does Shanghai have the use of a health history QR code that can be used to screen potential guests, but cases have been going down for several weeks in the region, while case numbers are still very much so on the rise in the US. With these conditions in mind, it may simply be too soon for Disney to think about theme park reopenings this year, until we know more about the virus' spread in the US during weeks and months to come.