Solution 2: “Make it FastPass+ only”

A-ha! Another answer that seems to make perfect sense at first glance!

Okay, so admittedly, we're not big believers in FastPass anyway as evidenced by a similarly-scientific, must-read editorial explaining why FastPass makes your Disney waits worse, not better. But for the sake of argument here, let's imagine FastPass being the method of getting aboard Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance. Right off the bat, we can eliminate any hope of a "Stand-by" option at all given the mess we saw in Solution 1. But maybe that's not so bad! Why shouldn't Rise of the Resistance be 100% FastPass? Like, FastPass only? Why can't a 100% pre-booked virtual queue be the solution? 

So let's try it. Let's dedicate 100% of the ride's capacity to FastPass. That seems clever enough, simply allowing its realistic capacity (remember, currently about 17,000 guests per day) to pre-book into 1,400 person, hour-long return windows. Sure, this would cause the My Disney Experience app to essentially crumble every morning at 7:00 AM when FastPass becomes available to Disney World Resort Hotel guests, creating a Hunger Games style refreshing tournament… but hey, at least the carnage would be digital instead of the morning-of, in the park. 

So voila! FastPass solves it, right? After all, it removes the massive crush of "just opening the line" and prevents day-of heartbreak. But let's take a look at the results of a "FastPass only" option:

1. ... the line would still be "full" (with all 17,000 daily spots spoken for) within a minute 7:00 AM, just 60 days out instead of the morning of.
2. ... this FastPass-only system would somewhat inadvertently mean only guests staying on Disney property could ride Rise of the Resistance, period, since they book 60 days ahead of time rather than 30... and sure, Disney making the world's most-desired ride essentially exclusive to guests staying in their very pricey hotels would look pretty bad... But at least everyone would know 60 days out whether or not they’re riding. No early wake-ups; no day-of disappointments. Two months out from your day, you’d have a “yes” or a “no" (and the guarantee that, if you're staying off-site, it's a "no"). Right?
3. ... except, not right... Because what this solution fails to account for is that pesky downtime we mentioned in the case. Sure, while FastPass would elegantly hand out the ride’s expected hourly capacity of 60 riders in neat, clean, hour-long return windows, there’s a problem. What if the ride closes for 10 minutes? 30 minutes? For a few hours? What if the ride was entirely closed from 1:00 PM - 3:00 PM?

Let's expand on that last scenario... that FastPass reservations have been fully distributed for the ride, claiming all 17,000 of its daily slots by sectioning guests into 1,400-person, hour-long return windows. If the ride is closed from 1:00 - 3:00, the nearly 3,000 guests assigned return times between those hours will need to return after 3:00… That's standard procedure for FastPass even today; if a ride is down during your return window, you can return any time for the rest of the day (or another experience, but let's be honest, who'd choose Slinky Dog Dash over Rise of the Resistance?)

But hold on… we handed out 100% of the ride’s capacity, remember? If the ride loses two hours of operation, it loses two hours of capacity, period. Those 3,000 guests who were assigned a return window between 1:00 and 3:00 will expect to get their chance to ride…! And since 100% of the capacity for every remaining hour is spoken for, the only way to allow that to happen is:

1. to make those 1:00 - 3:00 people come back after every other guest with FastPass has been served during their assigned hour
2. to slide everyone’s return window two hours, so the 1:00 - 2:00 window gets on board when the ride re-opens at 3:00, the 5:00 - 6:00 window rides from 7:00 - 8:00, etc… How would you communicate that to guests? Organize that chaos?

Either way, this two-hour downtime didn't just displace 3,000 people promised a ride; it did so on a ride whose capacity is 100% spoken for the rest of the operating day. You have two hours worth of riders who are going to want to ride, which means whether you choose option 1 or option 2, you are going to need to extend the ride's operating day by two hours. So not only is your ride working overtime, but it's extended operation is eating into the precious overnight maintenance time needed to make it all happen again tomorrow!

And as unlikely as it may seem, imagine the opposite: that the ride is running so well, it handles the 17,000 guests planned from 1:00 - 2:00 by 1:30! Now, the ride will sit idly for 30 minutes waiting for the 2:00 group to return… literally just wasting time… sitting… unused… the most sought-after ride on Earth. Uh, yikes.

Put simply, FastPass has the right idea, but inherently lacks the flexibility this temperamental ride needs; the ability to call guests back as available and not in pre-set time increments.

What doesn’t work

So let’s review.

• “Just open the line” would create a wildly inefficient entry experience, a line that reaches the ride’s 17,000 person daily capacity within seconds of park opening, a miserable waiting experience, a chaotic situation during any ride closure… and would still only serve 17,000 guests per day.
• “Make it FastPass only” would mean the ride would still sell out seconds after slots become available… just months in advance. Not to mention, this would all-but-officially limit the ride to only Disney Resort Hotel guests, would basically shatter the ride's flexibility around its numerous and frequent breakdowns… and it would still serve only 17,000 guests per day.

Here’s the ultra-important key to understanding the operational plan for Rise of the Resistance: for now, the ride can handle 17,000 people per day; 17,000 slots to fill. Its capacity is its capacity. Period. And because there are fewer slots available per day than there are Disney's Hollywood Studios guests hoping to ride, the fight is over how that capacity is distributed. And while folks online are quick to declare that they should “just open the line” or “make it FastPass only,” hopefully you can see that both of those “Solutions” would literally be catastrophic in their own ways.

So what would solve it? 

Solution 3: Boarding Groups

Let’s reimagine that FastPass strategy. Maybe 100% of Rise of the Resistance’s slots should be available via FastPass with absolutely no miserable, fruitless Stand-by option… Maybe all 17,000 slots should be up for grabs and reserved...

• … but to give non-resort guests a fighting chance, maybe the opportunity to get that FastPass should be the day-of, and to keep guests from arriving at 3 AM, they should only become available the second the park opens – equally available to any guest in the park at the moment of its opening regardless of how early they got there or how much their hotel cost;
• … and to avoid the inherent inflexibility and rigidness of pre-scheduled return windows that would decimate the ride’s operations during closures or exceptionally good periods, the FastPass shouldn’t have an exact time listed and instead simply be numerical;
• … and then, Disney should have a system for calling those FastPass groups back in small batches, so that when the ride is running well, more groups can be called; and when the ride breaks down, only a small number of guests even knows while the rest are simply waiting for their promised – but not concretely timed – invitation to return.

Congratulations: we just invented Boarding Groups!

Yes, Disney’s solution to both keep access to the ride equitable and to remain flexible and fluid to adjust to its ever-changing capacity essentially solves as many problems as a queuing system can solve. 

Sure, the virtual queue “Boarding Groups” distribute the ride’s daily capacity in seconds (an inevitability with any system, as we saw) but do so safely (no stampedes), efficiently (no park-spanning makeshift queue) and equitably (available day-of for any guest in the park, not months ahead of time for Hotel guests only); and without the restrictive “return times” promised by FastPass (inherently at odds with the ride’s ebbing and flowing capacity), Disney can call back small groups to experience Rise of the Resistance as available – more or fewer guests than anticipated at any given hour, as the day goes!

While it's easy to see why some guests (particularly those who don't manage to snag a Boarding Group) rally against the system, their argument against it typically labels it a "Lottery." And the truth is, they're right. For the very reasons we've explored above, Disney purposefully de-incentivized arriving at 3 AM; they intentionally and equitably ensured a Disney Resort Hotel stay was not a requirement to ride; they thoughtfully developed a system that can remain fluid during the day and between days, adjusting in real time to the expected and unexpected tides of Rise of the Resistance. Boarding Groups are equally available to everyone present at park opening, with only uncontrollable variables (like Internet speed, app performance, or reaction time) dictating the end result, and the percentage of "winners" determined by the ride's expected capacity for the day and the number of guests who show up.

Is the Boarding Group system perfect? Of course not. But with demand outweighing supply for the foreseeable future, "just opening the line" or "making the ride FastPass only" would be catastrophic mistakes that would fundamentally shatter the ride's operations.

The end result...

There’s a reason Boarding Groups are still in effect… and may be for a very, very long time. After all, until Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance is able to effectively, efficiently, and regularly handle most guests who wants to ride it, demand is going to outweigh supply… and that means Disney must have a system that’s viewed as equitable and flexible.

For now – and for the foreseeable future – that’s Boarding Groups. Now, do we think it's possible for Disney to release a batch at park opening, a batch at noon, and a batch at 5:00, adjusting the number of Boarding Groups as the day progresses? Maybe… But those pesky inefficiencies, hurt feelings, and broken promises would still be a part of this flawed – but ultimately, equitable – system.

Until then, those eager to snag a coveted seat aboard Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance will need to continue planning on being outside of Disney’s Hollywood Studios (or Disneyland) no less than an hour before park opening. Get through security, tap in, and get your My Disney Experience app ready... Once the park’s opening second strikes, all bets are off… but at least there are no stampedes! After all, it's easy to understand why guests would be frustrating with Boarding Groups (particularly if they didn't manage to snag one)! But ask yourself, if you didn't click "Join Boarding Group" fast enough, what makes you think you could've beat at least 13,000 people in a physical race to the line?

So next time someone on Facebook, Twitter, or a Disney Parks discussion board demands that Disney “just open the line” or “make it FastPass only,” send them this article... Maybe it'll change their mind!