The third gate is coming, and here’s what we know

Image: Universal

Even if we don’t know where, exactly, it might go, the signs are certainly pointing to a third park being in Universal’s future – and not just in our collective imaginations. Back in 2014, with Harry Potter still the hot word on everyone’s lips, Universal gave guests a survey asking them what other intellectual properties they’d be interested in seeing come to the parks in the form of a themed land. A couple of the options on that survey stick out: the Fast and the Furious and “Super Mario.” A year down the line, we now know that Universal is bringing a Fast and the Furious-themed attraction to Orlando, and we also know that they’ve partnered with Nintendo for some sort of forthcoming attraction experience, possibly on the scale of a themed land.

And so, knowing that Universal was indeed taking these ideas seriously, some of the other options on that survey are quite intriguing. Six of the options are related to literary franchises: James Bond, Sherlock Holmes, The Lord of the Rings, Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, and Twilight. Others are clearly sci-fi related: Battlestar Galactica, Tron, and Star Trek. Others are obviously children-oriented: SpongeBob Squarepants, Ice Age, Looney Toons, Scooby Doo, and Dora the Explorer. And others are already living happily in Universal: Jurassic Park, Spider Man, Terminator, Transformers, and Shrek.

Image: Loren Javier, Flickr (license)

What this tells us is that if Universal were thinking of building a new park, they’d probably look to one of these overarching themes to connect it together: Literature, Science-fiction, or kid-friendly. Each of those three options would fill a need for Universal thematically while still providing flexibility moving forward – with sci-fi and kid-friendly parks seeming like the best bet.

Think about it: One of the biggest complaints about Universal is that it lacks family-friendly attraction options, or that it is a park geared too largely toward teenagers and young adults. Building a park that appeals largely to young children would help fill that need – one which has largely been absent since the closure of the Nickelodeon Studios over a decade ago.

Additionally, one way of offsetting the forthcoming Star Wars wave – or even capturing some of it – would be to build an entire park dedicated to sci-fi. Tron, owned by Disney, probably wouldn’t make an appearance, but Battlestar Galactica and Star Trek (and maybe even Lord of the Rings) would certainly provide a worthy competition. And, the theme is expansive enough to allow for further development, relocation of IP from the other parks (like Terminator) and, possibly, an additional location for Halloween Horror Nights.

Image: Paramount

Now, all the caveats apply here – this is just speculation and, of course, all of this could cost a tremendous amount of money. Nevertheless, what has been made abundantly clear in the last 5 years is that Universal does not shy away from spending money when it is the right decision. And, in that same time period, they have been unequivocally beating the pants off Disney. Disney is still number one, yes, but until Star Wars comes to town, that title will be under threat. The third park is coming – land is procurable and ideas are cheap. The only question, really, is when. And only Universal knows the answer to that.

So, let’s say they do announce a third park. What then?

Image: Joel, Flickr (license)

If Universal announces a third park, all hell will break lose in Central Florida. For a decade, Disney has operated under the assumption that Universal cannot pose a meaningful challenge to its tourism supremacy. Even now, Disney’s response of Star Wars and Toy Story are measured and precise. The reason they feel comfortable doing this is that they have unparalleled brand loyalty and an immense variety of offerings for their guests. Universal is great, but it’s still not the kind of place you could spend a week – and for those vacationers, Disney will always come first. But if Universal builds a third park, that feeling of security evaporates.

The capital outlay for a third park would be so big – from land acquisition costs, to construction, to R&D, to operation – it would show Disney that Universal is not constrained by anything. And that amount of money and energy is scary to a company that has built its business around keeping guests on its property. They know, if Universal has a third theme park, more guests are going to choose to stay with Universal, making Disney the day-trip destination. Add to that the increased sense of distance between Disney's most passionate fans and the company due to the recent increase in prices for annual passes, and you have a real opportunity for Universal to grab a big chunk of Disney's market.

Image: Disney

So, what happens then? What might Disney do? Well, there are preliminary overtures for a fifth gate at Walt Disney World, but that seems premature. Instead, Disney would be wise to invest in something Universal could never replicate, and something which has already proven to be a success for the company: Epcot. A full overhaul of Epcot would no doubt be cheaper than building a new park, and it would thrill Disney fans into keeping their precious vacation days with the mouse.

But, if you want some hope for a fifth Disney park, think of it this way: Disney increased the prices of its annual passes because, it says, capacity has been an issue in its Florida parks. Considering the relatively small percentage of visitors to the resort that actually have an annual pass, this price increase seems more like a temporary solution -- and is there a better way to increase capacity than opening another theme park? No, there's not.

The next decade in Central Florida should be pretty exciting no matter what, but if Universal does what it’s starting to feel like they’ll do, the next ten years have the potential to be really special. The iconic attraction at Walt Disney World says, “There’s a great big beautiful tomorrow” – who’d have thought that’d largely be because of Universal?