3. Merlin will start to dominate (part of) Orlando

Nick Sim, Theme Park Tourist editor-in-chief:

I agree that 2015 is looking like a pretty barren year in terms of new additions to Orlando's theme parks, although I suspect that many people held off visiting last year (to avoid the inevitable vast hordes of Harry Potter fans) and will therefore be experiencing many of 2014's additions for the first time this year.

I think the debut of the Orlando Eye and the associated Sea Life and Madame Tussauds attractions is pretty intriguing.  Merlin Entertainments completely dominates the themed attractions market over here in the UK, and it's obviously a very large global player now.  It's also proven that it can build a "hub" of attractions in a major tourist hotspot (London) and be very successful in the process – there are huge crowds down at the London Eye/London Dungeon/London Sea Life Aquarium/soon-to-open Shrek attraction location every day, and Merlin is essentially looking to replicate that model in Orlando.

With three attractions on the same site, it'll be hoping to carve out a full day from tourists' vacations, and you can bet it will price multi-attraction tickets aggressively in order to do that.  I doubt that Merlin will have any intention of partnering with other I-Drive attractions like the Skyscraper – it will want to get people to its own site and keep them there for as long as possible.  And probably sell them a ticket to Legoland Florida in the process.

The reason I find it intriguing is that we're always hearing how Merlin is catching up with Disney in terms of overall size and visitor numbers (albeit spread over a much larger number of attractions), but there aren't actually that many places where the two companies compete directly.  With a host of Merlin attractions on I-Drive, plus Legoland Florida down the road, it'll be interesting to see whether people will really give up a day at Disney or Universal to spend at a wax museum, an aquarium that will look pretty small next to SeaWorld, and a giant observation wheel.

I personally wouldn't bother – I don't think viewing Orlando from above is quite the same as looking down at London.  But I can't help thinking that Merlin has done its homework here, and that the numbers will ultimately add up.

4. The start of Animal Kingdom’s evolution

Tim Grassey, co-owner of WDW Theme Parks:

I guess it depends on what their actual goal is here to determine whether or not they’re successful.  Universal is approaching 25% of the market, and I don’t see them losing ground to Merlin.  It’s possible that SeaWorld continues to lose ground, or perhaps a day is lost at Hollywood Studios or Epcot.

For me, the most intriguing thing happening in 2015 are the changes at Animal Kingdom.  We won’t see Rivers of Light or Avatar in ‘15, but we will see the Harambe Marketplace and, quite possibly, the nighttime safari.  That park is evolving, and part of that evolution will take place this year.

5. SeaWorld should sell itself to Merlin

Len Testa, president of Touring Plans:

I think we're in for a relatively quiet 18 months to two years.  As Arthur said, we've just finished a big investment cycle in 2014 with the debut of Diagon Alley and the rest of New Fantasyland.  The next cycle isn't likely to start opening attractions until 2016 – Universal's Kong and Sapphire Falls projects, and maybe a water park.  Disney is just now beginning an investment cycle at the Studios.  I'd expect to see some version of Paris's Toy Story Land open in DHS around the end of 2016.  We'll have Avatar in 2017 and maybe into 2018, with Star Wars Land at the Studios in maybe 2019 or 2020.  There'll be relatively minor changes along the way (farewell, IllumiNations!), and I suppose we can all eat and shop at Disney Springs as we talk about it.

It's very good to see Merlin investing in Orlando and experimenting with different styles of attractions.  I don't expect them all to succeed, because they're competing with Disney and Universal here, as opposed to the much smaller players in the UK.  Like Tim, I don't see them being anything other than the third-place venue for most Orlando tourists.  (Just think about how something like 15-20% of the market is shut off by Magical Express.)  If they can adapt quickly, though, it could lead to a lot of consolidation outside of Disney and Universal, because no one else is going to have the funding to compete.

The one other challenge I see to Merlin in Orlando is this six-year construction project on I-4.  Not sure how many people are going to want to brave that just to see some tertiary attractions.

Nick said something interesting about Merlin's aquarium.  Yes, it is pretty small compared to SeaWorld, but Merlin runs a bunch of these Sea Life sites across the UK.  SeaWorld also isn't doing particularly well as a business, whereas Merlin is looking to invest.  Why doesn't SeaWorld sell to Merlin?  They could rebrand it, get rid of some of the more controversial practices, and then offer one of those all-inclusive tickets, perhaps with a park-and-ride shuttle.

I still don't think that'd make them anything other than a third-place destination, but the gap between third and fourth would be huge.  It would change the landscape and put some of the other, smaller properties in play, and that would be good for Uni and Merlin.

Previous All-Star Roundtable entries:

The 6 Biggest Developments in Theme Parks in 2014

5 Reasons Why Disney’s Hotels Aren’t Full… but It Doesn’t Care

5 Reasons Why Universal’s Diagon Alley Is NOT a Flop

4 HUGE Changes Coming to a Theme Park Near You

5 Reasons Why Disney WON’T Change to Fend off Competition in Orlando

4 Ways That Universal’s Diagon Alley Will Change Theme Parks Forever